Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to improve Hoeffding's lemma and consequently Hoeffding's tail bounds. The improvement pertains to left skewed zero mean random variables X\in[a,b], where a<0 and -a>b. The proof of Hoeffding's improved lemma uses Taylor's expansion, the convexity of \exp(sx), s\in \RR, and an unnoticed observation since Hoeffding's publication in 1963 that for -a>b the maximum of the intermediate function \tau(1-\tau) appearing in Hoeffding's proof is attained at an endpoint rather than at \tau=0.5 as in the case b>-a. Using Hoeffding's improved lemma we obtain one sided and two sided tail bounds for \PP(S_n\ge t) and \PP(|S_n|\ge t), respectively, where S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i and the X_i\in[a_i,b_i],i=1,...,n are independent zero mean random variables (not necessarily identically distributed). It is interesting to note that we could also improve Hoeffding's two sided bound for all \{X_i: -a_i\ne b_i,i=1,...,n\}. This is so because here the one sided bound should be increased by \PP(-S_n\ge t), wherein the left skewed intervals become right skewed and vice versa.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.052 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.013 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.017 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".