Bayesian Surprise in Linear Gaussian Dynamic Systems: Revisiting State Estimation
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article proposes a Bayesian surprise minimization scheme to perform adaptive estimation for a family of linear Gaussian dynamic models. It is shown that the redefined Bayesian surprise in linear Gaussian dynamic systems is a function of the Kalman filter parameters and plays a key role in the state-estimation process. The proposed representation of the Kalman filter illustrates that the information from the Bayesian surprise and the innovation process contributes to the estimation of the state vector and its covariance matrix. This unique approach yields a new set of linear estimation algorithms, where filtering is purely performed with respect to the Bayesian surprise. Simulation results confirm that the information in Bayesian surprise can be sufficient to achieve optimal estimation. In addition, an alternative approach is proposed to test filter consistency based on Bayesian surprise.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it