Dangerous Times? A Routine Activities Examination of the Temporal Patterns of Sexual Offenses over Time
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite environmental criminologists emphasizing the role that both space and time play in the occurrence of crime, there is still only a small literature on the temporal rhythms of criminal behavior, especially those of sexual violence. Drawing from routine activities theory, this research uses circular statistics to investigate the temporal patterns of 2,260 sexual offenses from a Canadian police database at the seasonal-, monthly-, daily-, and hourly-levels, as well as their consistency over time. Findings suggest that there is a distinct temporal pattern when the unit of analysis is at the seasonal-, monthly-, and hourly-levels, but not at the daily-level. Furthermore, these temporal patterns are relatively consistent from year-to-year. These conclusions support the legitimacy of including a temporal element into current geographically-based sexual offender policies and practices. Pragmatically, these findings may also be used to better inform policing and situational crime prevention efforts to reduce the incidence of sexual crimes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".