German Economy: On the Long, Slow Road to Normality: DIW Economic Outlook
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The German economy has bottomed out, but its recovery is going to be long and arduous. Nevertheless, following the almost two-digit slump in economic output in the second quarter of 2020, recovery is likely to be accompanied by above-average rates. However, it is assumed that a second wave will not occur and lockdown-like measures will not be reimplemented. Private consumption in particular will markedly increase over the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Short-time work is declining, contributing to the increase in disposable income. Additionally, households saved considerably during the height of the pandemic in spring 2020 and are spending their savings gradually over the second half of the year. The VAT reduction and further stimulus program measures are supporting consumption and thus the economy. In contrast, the recovery in foreign demand for German products is likely to be more protracted. The economy and labor markets in many countries have been hit much harder than in Germany, and demand for consumer durables and capital goods – the focus of Germany’s export industry – in particular is likely to be subdued. The pre-crisis level of economic activity will likely not be reached until early 2022. In 2020, German GDP is expected to drop by an annual average of 6.0 percent and grow by 4.1 and 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.023 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it