Can Multistage Production Explain the Home Bias in Trade?
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A large empirical literature finds that there is too little international trade and too much intranational trade to be rationalized by observed international trade costs, such as tariffs and transport costs. This paper investigates whether a model in which the nature of production can change in response to trade costs—a framework with multistage production—can better explain the home bias in trade. The calibrated model can explain about two-fifths of the Canada border effect, about two-and-one-half times that of a model with one production stage. The model also explains a significant fraction of Canada-US “back-and-forth,” or vertical specialization, trade. (JEL F11, F13, F14)
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it