Arms and the Man: World War I and the Rise of the Welfare State
Bibliographic record
Abstract
SUMMARY Why did peacetime government shares of total spending double in a number of Western economies between 1910 and 1938? The widely separated dates for the introduction of universal manhood suffrage and the evidence of a rise in protection during the inter‐war period indicate that neither democracy nor globalization can explain this development. This paper reexamines two other explanations, namely, (1) a shift in the demand for public goods and (2) a war‐induced willingness to share with one's fellow citizens. By introducing into Schelling's (1978) Multi‐Person Dilemma a learning game whose payoffs change endogenously, we provide theoretical explanations for this transformation. We then test the resulting propositions with data on public spending as a share of GNP for the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Germany and Denmark, from the 1870s to the 1930s. In each case, we find no unit root but a break in trend, a result shown to favor explanation (2) over (1).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".