미국 경제구조 변화에 따른 성장 지속가능성 점검 및 시사점 (Structural Changes of the U.S. Economy and Its Implication on the U.S. Mid-To-Long Term Growth Path and the Korean Economy)

Korean Abstract: 금융위기 이후 미국 경제는 여타 선진국 대비 빠른 속도로 회복되고 있어 그 원인에 대해 관심이 쏠리고 있다. 반면 이러한 회복세에도 불구하고 미국 내에서는 구조적 장기침체(secular stagnation)에 대한 우려로 미국의 중장기 성장에 대한 부정적인 시각이 존재한다. 본 연구는 이러한 두 가지 논의에 대해 구조변화와 공급 측면에서 미국 경제를 분석하여 해답을 찾아보았다. 이러한 분석을 바탕으로 한국의 중장기 대외경제정책 및 성장전략에 주는 시사점을 도출하였으며, 이러한 점에서 본 연구의 의의를 찾을 수 있을 것이다. English Abstract: What is the cause of the rapid recovery of the US after the financial crisis compared to other advanced countries, and how will the US's medium- and long-term growth be followed? It is one of the most important questions about the recent US economy. The purpose of this study is to present the analysis of these problems and to examine the implications of US economic recovery and mid - to long - term growth on Korea. First, after the financial crisis, the US economy is recovering faster than other developed countries such as Japan and Europe. On the back of this recovery, the US is trying to normalize its monetary policy by moving away from zero interest rate. However, other developed countries such as Japan and Europe are still trying to stimulate the economy through easing monetary policies such as quantitative easing. As shown in various data, during the 2008-2009 financial crisis period, the real GDP of each country has recovered slowly after a sharp decline, but it is recovering differently in each country. In the case of the United States, it shows a rapid recovery compared to Japan and Europe. One thing to keep in mind is that the recovery rate from the financial crisis period until 2011 is not much different among US, Japan and Europe, but the recovery of Europe and Japan has stagnated since 2011. As a result, in the US, GDP in the first quarter of 2015 is about 10% higher than in the first quarter of 2007, but in Japan and Europe, GDP in the first quarter of 2015 is only about 1-2% higher than the first quarter of 2007. On the other hand, despite the rapid recovery compared to other developed countries, there are still many people who doubt the mid- to long-term growth path of the US economy. In the mid-to-long term, the growth potential of the US is limited to mid-1%, and economists such as Larry Summers and Paul Krugman are questioning the US's long-term growth by insisting on the US's structural stagnation. In particular, Gordon presented a very pessimistic analysis of the US mid- to long-term economic growth. His analysis suggests that the United States’ mid- to long-term growth prospects are not bright due to the US structural problem such as aging population and low productivity.

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