A Semiparametric Two-Factor Term Structure Model
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article proposes a semiparametric two-factor term structure model based on a consol rate and the spread between a short rate and the consol rate. The diffusion functions in both the consol rate and spread processes are nonparametrically specified so that the model allows for maximal flexibility of diffusion functions in fitting into data. The drift function of the spread process is specified as a mean-reverting function, while the drift function of the consol rate process is left unrestricted. A nonparametric procedure is developed for estimating the diffusion functions. The asymptotic biases of the nonparametric estimators are quantified when the step of discretization is fixed, while the asymptotic distributions of the nonparametric estimators are derived when the step of discretization tends to zero. The pricing and hedging performances of the model are evaluated in a simulated economic environment. Results show that the model performs quite well in the simulated economy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it