Can Machine Learning Help in Solving Cargo Capacity Management Booking Control Problems
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Revenue management is important for carriers (e.g., airlines and railroads). In this paper, we focus on cargo capacity management which has received less attention in the literature than its passenger counterpart. More precisely, we focus on the problem of controlling booking accept/reject decisions: Given a limited capacity, accept a booking request or reject it to reserve capacity for future bookings with potentially higher revenue. We formulate the problem as a finite-horizon stochastic dynamic program. The cost of fulfilling the accepted bookings, incurred at the end of the horizon, depends on the packing and routing of the cargo. This is a computationally challenging aspect as the latter are solutions to an operational decision-making problem, in our application a vehicle routing problem (VRP). Seeking a balance between online and offline computation, we propose to train a predictor of the solution costs to the VRPs using supervised learning. In turn, we use the predictions online in approximate dynamic programming and reinforcement learning algorithms to solve the booking control problem. We compare the results to an existing approach in the literature and show that we are able to obtain control policies that provide increased profit at a reduced evaluation time. This is achieved thanks to accurate approximation of the operational costs and negligible computing time in comparison to solving the VRPs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it