Distributional Transforms, Probability Distortions, and Their Applications
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we provide a general mathematical framework for distributional transforms, which allows for many examples that are used extensively in the literature of finance, economics, and optimization. We put a special focus on the class of probability distortions, which is a fundamental tool in decision theory. As our main results, we characterize distributional transforms satisfying various properties, and this includes an equivalent set of conditions which forces a distributional transform to be a probability distortion. As the first application, we construct new risk measures using distributional transforms. Sufficient and necessary conditions are given to ensure the convexity or coherence of the generated risk measures. In the second application, we introduce a new method for sensitivity analysis of risk measures based on composition groups of probability distortions. Finally, we construct probability distortions describing a change of measures with an example in option pricing.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it