Incorporating healthcare systems in pandemic models
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
There are several models used to predict the spread of disease in a pandemic, but few, if any, incorporate the effect of healthcare systems in preventing propagation of the disease. In areas where healthcare is easily available to the general public (specifically, countries with universal healthcare), the ability of infected individuals to receive rapid treatment should impact disease spread. Additionally, the presence of a pandemic will result in an increased load on the healthcare system as infected individuals seek medical attention at hospitals and from their family doctors. We modify an existing non-homogeneous, agent-based simulation pandemic disease spread model to incorporate a public healthcare system in a pandemic influenza simulation on the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada. Results show that healthcare availability significantly significantly increases disease spread due to increased contacts within the population. We also find that the creation of flu centers decreases flu-related deaths and decreases hospital admissions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it