Medium-Term Regional Electricity Load Forecasting through Machine Learning and Deep Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Due to severe climate change impact on electricity consumption, as well as new trends in smart grids (such as the use of renewable resources and the advent of prosumers and energy commons), medium-term and long-term electricity load forecasting has become a crucial need. Such forecasts are necessary to support the plans and decisions related to the capacity evaluation of centralized and decentralized power generation systems, demand response strategies, and controlling the operation. To address this problem, the main objective of this study is to develop and compare precise district level models for predicting the electrical load demand based on machine learning techniques including support vector machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF), and deep learning methods such as non-linear auto-regressive exogenous (NARX) neural network and recurrent neural networks (Long Short-Term Memory—LSTM). A dataset including nine years of historical load demand for Bruce County, Ontario, Canada, fused with the climatic information (temperature and wind speed) are used to train the models after completing the preprocessing and cleaning stages. The results show that by employing deep learning, the model could predict the load demand more accurately than SVM and RF, with an R-Squared of about 0.93–0.96 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of about 4–10%. The model can be used not only by the municipalities as well as utility companies and power distributors in the management and expansion of electricity grids; but also by the households to make decisions on the adoption of home- and district-scale renewable energy technologies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".