Role of high-risk antibiotic use in incidence of health-care-associated Clostridioides difficile infection in Quebec, Canada: a population-level ecological study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The incidence of health-care-associated Clostridioides difficile infections has been declining in the Canadian province of Quebec since 2015. We examined whether changes in high-risk antibiotic use could account for this decrease, as reported in other jurisdictions. METHODS: We did a retrospective interrupted time-series analysis of 12 hospitals in the Canadian province of Quebec, representing a quarter of all health-care-associated C difficile infections in this region between April 1, 2012, and March 31, 2017. Data for high-risk antibiotic use (eg, amoxicillin-clavulanate, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and clindamycin) in defined daily doses (DDDs) were extracted from local surveillance databases, and incidences of health-care-associated C difficile infections were extracted from provincial surveillance databases. We used hierarchical segmented Poisson regression to assess whether variations in rates of health-care-associated C difficile infections followed variations in antibiotic use. FINDINGS: Overall, 4455 health-care-associated C difficile infections and 6 281 960 patient-days were reported in the 12 participating hospitals, representing around a quarter of the provincial data. A 50% decrease in the annual incidence of health-care-associated C difficile infections was recorded between 2012-13 and 2016-17 (9·4 infections per 10 000 patient-days vs 4·7 infections per 10 000 patient-days), and a 67% decrease in the proportion of these infections due to the NAP1/027 strain of C difficile was seen (64% in 2013 vs 21% in 2017). In total, 1 266 960 DDDs of high-risk antibiotics were distributed during the study period. An increasing time trend was noted in high-risk antibiotic use, reaching a total of 223 DDDs per 1000 patient-days in 2016-17. An increase of one DDD per 1000 patient-days was associated with a 0·2% increase in the rate of health-care-associated C difficile infections in the following 4-week period. A significant change in incidence of health-care-associated C difficile infections persisted despite adjustment for high-risk antibiotic use, as shown by a significant residual step change (0·825, 95% CI 0·731-0·932) and change in trend (0·987, 0·980-0·994). INTERPRETATION: Changes in use of high-risk antibiotics do not entirely account for the sudden decrease in health-care-associated C difficile infections in the Canadian province of Quebec since 2015. Further studies are needed to understand factors implicated in the change in epidemiology of health-care-associated C difficile infections. FUNDING: Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it