Lung organoid simulations for modelling and predicting the effect of mutations on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to spread. Infection with SARS- CoV-2 causes COVID-19, a disease of variable severity. Mutation has already altered the SARS-CoV-2 genome from its original reported sequence and continued mutation is highly probable. These mutations can: (i) have no significant impact (they are silent), (ii) result in a complete loss or reduction of infectivity, or (iii) induce increase in infectivity. Physical generation, for research purposes, of viral mutations that could enhance infectivity are controversial and highly regulated. The primary purpose of this project was to evaluate the ability of the DeepNEU machine learning stem-cell simulation platform to enable rapid and efficient assessment of the potential impact of viral loss-of-function (LOF) and gain-of-function (GOF) mutations on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. Our data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infection can be simulated in human alveolar type lung cells. Simulation of infection in these lung cells can be used to model and assess the impact of LOF and GOF mutations in the SARS-CoV2 genome. We have also created a four- factor infectivity measure: the DeepNEU Case Fatality Rate (dnCFR). dnCFR can be used to assess infectivity based on the presence or absence of the key viral proteins (NSP3, Spike-RDB, N protein, and M protein). dnCFR was used in this study, not to only assess the impact of different mutations on SARS-CoV2 infectivity, but also to categorize the effects of mutations as loss of infectivity or gain of infectivity events.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".