Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Persistently high food inflation has been one of the major concerns facing India over the last few years. With nearly a quarter of the population living below the poverty line, the persistence of food inflation at high levels is extremely undesirable. In this paper, we analyse the behaviour and determinants of food inflation over the recent past. We introduce structural breaks to identify the different phases of food inflation during the last three decades, and evaluate the persistence of food and core inflation across these phases. There is increase in persistence in food inflation over the periods implying it has become more persistent, and any positive shock will have a longer impact on it. Various components of food inflation including cereals, pulses, fruits, vegetables, meat and fish, have been significant contributors to food inflation at different points in time, indicating a broad nature of the problem. In analysing the key drivers of food inflation, we find limited role of international prices, with the co-movements between domestic and international prices being lower for cereals and dairy products, and higher for tradables like edible oils and meat. Using household consumer expenditure data we empirically estimate aggregate demand for key food products, and find demand has consistently outstripped supply in the case of cereals, pulses, meat and fish, and the extent of mismatch has widened in recent years. The rise in food prices is also a reaction of the rise in price of various inputs, including price of fuel and agricultural wages. We also find certain policy decisions such as large increases in minimum support prices have been associated with much higher increase in wholesale prices of these commodities in the corresponding period. Finally, we find significant evidence of transmission of food inflation to non-food inflation and aggregate inflation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it