Development of a tiered analytical method for forensic investigation of mixed lubricating oil samples
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Oil spill forensic investigations are often challenging due to many confounding variables such as sample weathering, oil composition complexities, and the quality or quantity of collected materials, but the difficulty is further compounded when dealing with mixed oils. In this case, well-established oil fingerprinting techniques become inadequate, including gas chromatography-flame ionization detection (GC/FID) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) diagnostic ratio analysis. In dealing with mixtures of highly refined lubricating (lube) oils, GC/FID analysis often yields inconclusive results, while diagnostic ratio analysis can be compromised by missing or low response biomarker compounds. The present study explored the feasibility of addressing the challenges of mixed lube oil analysis through a multi-tiered analytical approach. This analysis supplemented traditional GC/FID and GC/MS diagnostic ratio analyses with multivariate statistics to rapidly screen large data sets. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) proved to be effective and intuitive qualitative methods for visualizing, differentiating, and characterizing four highly similar lube oil mixtures. Non-linear mixing patterns that were significant in the diagnostic ratio analysis were far less evident through LDA. Overall, these findings lay the groundwork for promising future study involving multivariate statistical approaches to complex mixed oil forensic cases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".