Confidence interval estimation for treatment effects in cluster randomization trials based on ranks
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A cluster randomization trial is one in which clusters of individuals are randomly allocated to different intervention arms. This design has become the standard for the evaluation of health care and educational strategies. To assess treatment effect, many cluster randomization trials involve outcomes that are lack meaningful units, making interpretation difficult. This difficulty may be dealt with by estimating the Mann-Whitney probability, which quantifies the probability that a typical response from one treatment arm is larger (or smaller) than a typical response from the other arm. In this work, we propose procedures for estimating this probability in cluster randomization trials. Primary emphasis is given to confidence interval estimation in trials with a small number of large clusters. The essence of the procedures is to obtain placement values based on overall ranks and arm-specific ranks prior to application of the ratio estimator, cluster-size-weighted means and mixed models for adjusting clustering effects. Nine confidence intervals were developed by applying three interval methods each based on the three variance estimators. The proposed methods can be applied to studies with binary, ordinal or continuous outcomes without making parametric assumptions. Simulation results demonstrated that the three variance estimators performed equally well, with the confidence interval procedures based on logit and inverse hyperbolic sine transformations performing better in terms of coverage and average interval width, even when the numbers of clusters are as small as 3 to 5 clusters per arm. The methods are illustrated using data from three published cluster randomization trials with SAS code provided.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.095 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it