Evolutionary Prediction of Nonstationary Event Popularity Dynamics of Weibo Social Network Using Time-Series Characteristics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A growing number of web users around the world have started to post their opinions on social media platforms and offer them for share. Building a highly scalable evolution prediction model by means of evolution trend volatility plays a significant role in the operations of enterprise marketing, public opinion supervision, personalized recommendation, and so forth. However, the historical patterns cannot cover the systematical time-series dynamic and volatility features in the prediction problems of a social network. This paper aims to investigate the popularity prediction problem from a time-series perspective utilizing dynamic linear models. First, the stationary and nonstationary time series of Weibo hot events are detected and transformed into time-dependent variables. Second, a systematic general popularity prediction model N- SEP 2 M is proposed to recognize and predict the nonstationary event propagation of a hot event on the Weibo social network. Third, the explanatory compensation variable social intensity (SI) is introduced to optimize the model N- SEP 2 M. Experiments on three Weibo hot events with different subject classifications show that our prediction approach is effective for the propagation of hot events with burst traffic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".