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Record W3170755510 · doi:10.1111/sjos.12544

Cramér‐von Mises tests for change points

2021· article· en· W3170755510 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueScandinavian Journal of Statistics · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Inference
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMathematicsBootstrapping (finance)Nonparametric statisticsStatisticStatisticsTest statisticvon Mises distributionSample size determinationStatistical hypothesis testingEconometricsvon Mises yield criterion

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract We study two nonparametric tests of the hypothesis that a sequence of independent observations is identically distributed against the alternative that at a single change point the distribution changes. The tests are based on the Cramér–von Mises two‐sample test computed at every possible change point. One test uses the largest such test statistic over all possible change points; the other averages over all possible change points. Large sample theory for the average statistic is shown to provide useful p ‐values much more quickly than bootstrapping, particularly in long sequences. Power is analyzed for contiguous alternatives. The average statistic is shown to have limiting power larger than its level for such alternative sequences. Evidence is presented that this is not true for the maximal statistic. Asymptotic methods and bootstrapping are used for constructing the test distribution. Performance of the tests is checked with a Monte Carlo power study for various alternative distributions.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.010
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.206
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.010
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.230
GPT teacher head0.423
Teacher spread0.193 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it