Quantifying out-of-station waiting time in oversaturated urban metro systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Metro systems in megacities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou are under great passenger demand pressure. During peak hours, it is common to see oversaturated conditions (i.e., passenger demand exceeds network capacity) and a popular control intervention is to restrict the entering rate by setting up out-of-station queueing with crowd control barriers. The out-of-station waiting can make up a substantial proportion of total travel time but is often ignored in the literature. Quantifying out-of-station waiting is important to evaluating the social benefit and cost of metro services; however, out-of-station waiting is difficult to estimate because it leaves no trace in smart card transactions of metros. In this study, we estimate the out-of-station waiting time by leveraging the information from a small group of transfer passengers—those who transfer from nearby bus routes to the metro station. Based on the transfer interval of this small group, we infer the out-of-station waiting time for all passengers by a Gaussian Process regression and then use the estimated out-of-station waiting time to build queueing diagrams. We apply our method to the Tiantongyuan North station of Beijing metro; results show that the maximum out-of-station waiting time can reach 15 min, and the maximum queue length can be over 3000 passengers. We find out-of-station waiting can cause significant travel costs and thus should be considered in analyzing transit performance, mode choice, and social benefits. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first quantitative study for out-of-station waiting time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".