A Climate Change Impact Assessment (CCIA) of Key Indicators and Critical Thresholds for Viticulture and Oenology in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Grape growth and wine production are both closely connected with weather and climate, making anthropogenic climate change a source of great uncertainty for the grape and wine industries. To assess the impacts of climate change on viticulture and oenology in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, where no such assessment has been published to this date, a series of key indicators and critical thresholds were selected based on their relevance to the local climatology. Trends among these indicators and thresholds were calculated over a historic period (1970-2019) and projected over the 21 st century for one intermediate-emissions and one high-emissions climate change scenario. Historic trends were assessed using Environment and Climate Change Canada weather station data from Abbotsford, British Columbia. Two statistical downscaling methods were evaluated based on their ability to reproduce observed conditions in the Fraser Valley and the most effective method was used to create projections of local, daily climate change scenarios. During the historic period, temperatures increased significantly, while precipitation and moisture variables displayed insignificant trends, reflecting the trends observed across other wine regions in Canada and the Northwestern United States. Throughout the 21 st century, warming is expected to continue while precipitation decreases modestly. Extreme heat is projected to become far more frequent, while extreme cold and potential frost days become rare. In the short term, modifications to vineyard and winery operations may be sufficient adaptation strategies. Over the long term, new grape varieties will most likely need to be planted in existing vineyards and suitability for cool-climate varieties may shift northward in direction or upward in elevation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it