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<scp>W</scp> ilkie Investment Model

2014· other· en· W3173096068 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueWiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online · 2014
Typeother
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicStochastic processes and financial applications
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBondInflation (cosmology)Exposition (narrative)EconomicsContext (archaeology)Investment (military)Equity (law)EconometricsFinancial modelingWageComputer scienceFinancial economicsFinanceHistoryArtLaw

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The Wilkie stochastic investment model, developed by Professor Wilkie, is described fully in two papers; the original version was published in 1986 and the model was reviewed, updated, and extended in 1995. In addition, the latter paper includes much detail on the process of fitting the model and estimating the parameters. It is an excellent exposition, both comprehensive and readable. It is highly recommended for any reader who wishes to implement the Wilkie model for themselves, or to develop and fit their own model. The Wilkie model is commonly used to simulate the joint distribution of inflation rates, bond yields, and returns on equities. The 1995 paper also extends the model to incorporate wage inflation, property yields, and exchange rates. The model has proved to be an invaluable tool for actuaries, particularly in the context of measuring and managing financial risk. In this article, we will describe fully the inflation, equity, and bond processes of the model. Before doing so, it is worth considering the historical circumstances that led to the development of the model.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.239
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.051
GPT teacher head0.265
Teacher spread0.215 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it