Purchase Intent Forecasting with Convolutional Hierarchical Transformer Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purchase intent forecasting, which aims to model user consumption behavior over different categories of items, plays a key role in many services, like online retailing systems, computational advertising and personalized recommendations. While the recently emerged deep neural network models (e.g., recurrent neural network, or attention mechanism) have been proposed to understand user's sequential behavior, we argue that the successes of these methods is largely rely on the data sufficiency. However, the practical purchase forecasting scenarios involve highly sparse data distributions across categories and time. In such cases, one has to deal with the data imbalance problem in order to encode the complex patterns of user purchase behaviors. To tackle this challenge, we develop a Convolutional Hierarchical TRansformer networks (CHTR), to enable the purchase pattern modeling with the multi-grained temporal dynamics, so as to alleviate the data imbalance issue. In our CHTR framework, we develop a multi-grained hierarchical transformer network, to make the learned behavior embeddings be reflective of the multi-level relational structures. Then, a dependency modeling component is proposed to aggregate the multi-relational context signals and capture the underlying dependent structures. Our experiments on real-world datasets show the significant improvements obtained by CHTR over different types of alternative methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".