Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Project Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change Scenarios
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Evapotranspiration, one of the major elements of the water cycle, is sensitive to climate change. The main objective of this study was to examine the response of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) under various climate change scenarios using artificial neural networks and a general circulation model (GCM) - the Canadian Earth System Model Second Generation (CanESM2). The Hargreaves method was used to calculate ET0 for western, central, and eastern parts of Prince Edward Island. The two input parameters of the Hargreaves method; daily maximum temperature (Tmax), and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) were projected using CanESM2. The Tmax and Tmin were downscaled with the help of statistical downscaling and simulation model (SDSM) for three future periods 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070), and 2080s (2071–2100) under three representative concentration pathways (RCP’s) including RCP 2.6, RCP P4.5, and RCP 8.5, and the. Temporally, there were major changes in Tmax, Tmin, and ET0 for the 2080s under RCP8.5. The temporal variations in ET0 for all RCPs matched the reports in the literature for other similar locations and for RCP8.5 it ranged from 1.63 (2020s) to 2.29 mm/day (2080s). As a next step, a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), long-short term memory (LSTM), and multilayer perceptron (MLP) were used for estimating ET0 due to the non-linear behavior of ET0 and the limited meteorological input data. High coefficient of correlation (r > 0.95) values for both calibration and validation periods showed the potential of the artificial neural networks in ET0 estimation. The results of this study will help decision makers and water resource managers to quantify the availability of water in future for the island and to optimize the use of island water resources on a sustainable basis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".