Parameter Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation of Copula-Based Multivariate Hydroclimatic Risk Assessment
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Extensive uncertainties exist in hydroclimatic risk analysis. Especially in multivariate hydrologic risk inferences, uncertainties in individual hydroclimatic extremes such as floods and their dependence structure may lead to bias and uncertainty in future hydrologic risk predictions. In this study, a parameter uncertainty and sensitivity evaluation (PUSE) framework is proposed to quantify parameter uncertainties and then reveal their contributions to the multivariate hydroclimatic risk predictions. The predictive risks are finally generated by “integrating†the values over the posterior distributions of the parameters. The proposed approach was applied for bivariate risk analysis of compound floods at the Xiangxi River to characterize the concurrence probabilities of flood peaks and volumes. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can quantify uncertainties in a copula-based multivariate risk analysis and characterize effects and contributions of parameters in marginal and dependence structures on the multivariate hydroclimatic risk predictions. In terms of the bivariate risk for flood peak and volume at the Xiangxi River, uncertainties in model parameters would lead to noticeable uncertainties even for moderate floods. The performances of the copula model for flood peak-volume at Xiangxi River are mainly affected by the uncertainties in location parameters of the two individual flood variables. Also, parameter uncertainty in the dependence structure (i.e., copula) would also poses explicit impacts on performance of the copula-based risk analyses model. These uncertainties would result into higher bivariate predictive risks than the values obtained by “optimal/deterministic†predictions. This indicates that uncertain- ties are required to be considered to provide reliable multivariate hydroclimatic risk predictions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it