Accurate Prediction of Stroke for Hypertensive Patients Based on Medical Big Data and Machine Learning Algorithms: Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Stroke risk assessment is an important means of primary prevention, but the applicability of existing stroke risk assessment scales in the Chinese population has always been controversial. A prospective study is a common method of medical research, but it is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Medical big data has been demonstrated to promote disease risk factor discovery and prognosis, attracting broad research interest. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish a high-precision stroke risk prediction model for hypertensive patients based on historical electronic medical record data and machine learning algorithms. METHODS: Based on the Shenzhen Health Information Big Data Platform, a total of 57,671 patients were screened from 250,788 registered patients with hypertension, of whom 9421 had stroke onset during the 3-year follow-up. In addition to baseline characteristics and historical symptoms, we constructed some trend characteristics from multitemporal medical records. Stratified sampling according to gender ratio and age stratification was implemented to balance the positive and negative cases, and the final 19,953 samples were randomly divided into a training set and test set according to a ratio of 7:3. We used 4 machine learning algorithms for modeling, and the risk prediction performance was compared with the traditional risk scales. We also analyzed the nonlinear effect of continuous characteristics on stroke onset. RESULTS: The tree-based integration algorithm extreme gradient boosting achieved the optimal performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9220, surpassing the other 3 traditional machine learning algorithms. Compared with 2 traditional risk scales, the Framingham stroke risk profiles and the Chinese Multiprovincial Cohort Study, our proposed model achieved better performance on the independent validation set, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic value increased by 0.17. Further nonlinear effect analysis revealed the importance of multitemporal trend characteristics in stroke risk prediction, which will benefit the standardized management of hypertensive patients. CONCLUSIONS: A high-precision 3-year stroke risk prediction model for hypertensive patients was established, and the model's performance was verified by comparing it with the traditional risk scales. Multitemporal trend characteristics played an important role in stroke onset, and thus the model could be deployed to electronic health record systems to assist in more pervasive, preemptive stroke risk screening, enabling higher efficiency of early disease prevention and intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".