Development of a dynamics-based model for analyzing strategic water–environmental conflicts: systems thinking instead of linear thinking
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A new evolution in graph modeling for conflict resolution (GMCR), a robust methodology for conflict resolution, is presented in this research to incorporate the systems thinking concept into the conventional paradigm of GMCR so that the dynamic nature of water–environmental conflicts can be modeled, and better outcomes obtained. To achieve this objective, a methodology is developed in three phases: static, dynamic, and outcome-based analyses. To develop the methodology, the Tigris–Euphrates basin conflict in the Middle East over the past 30 years, as a real-life case study, is used to show the robustness and capabilities of the proposed approach. Finally, a sustainable resolution to the current conflict is proposed, and the results are discussed. The proposed methodology benefits from improving the existing and often static-based conflict resolution developments by considering the dynamic nature so that the true root causes of complex conflicts are addressed, better strategic insights achieved, and comprehensive resolution provided.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".