Probing the Effect of Selection Bias on Generalization: A Thought Experiment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Learned systems in the domain of visual recognition and cognition impress in part because even though they are trained with datasets many orders of magnitude smaller than the full population of possible images, they exhibit sufficient generalization to be applicable to new and previously unseen data. Since training data sets typically represent such a small sampling of any domain, the possibility of bias in their composition is very real. But what are the limits of generalization given such bias, and up to what point might it be sufficient for a real problem task? Although many have examined issues regarding generalization from several perspectives, this question may require examining the data itself. Here, we focus on the characteristics of the training data that may play a role. Other disciplines have grappled with these problems also, most interestingly epidemiology, where experimental bias is a critical concern. The range and nature of data biases seen clinically are really quite relatable to learned vision systems. One obvious way to deal with bias is to ensure a large enough training set, but this might be infeasible for many domains. Another approach might be to perform a statistical analysis of the actual training set, to determine if all aspects of the domain are fairly captured. This too is difficult, in part because the full set of important variables might not be known, or perhaps not even knowable. Here, we try a different, simpler, approach in the tradition of the Thought Experiment, whose most famous instance is perhaps Schrödinger's Cat, to address part of these problems. There are many types of bias as will be seen, but we focus only on one, selection bias. The point of the thought experiment is not to demonstrate problems with all learned systems. Rather, this might be a simple theoretical tool to probe into bias during data collection to highlight deficiencies that might then deserve extra attention either in data collection or system development.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.046 | 0.165 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".