Dynamic order Markov model for categorical sequence clustering
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Markov models are extensively used for categorical sequence clustering and classification due to their inherent ability to capture complex chronological dependencies hidden in sequential data. Existing Markov models are based on an implicit assumption that the probability of the next state depends on the preceding context/pattern which is consist of consecutive states. This restriction hampers the models since some patterns, disrupted by noise, may be not frequent enough in a consecutive form, but frequent in a sparse form, which can not make use of the information hidden in the sequential data. A sparse pattern corresponds to a pattern in which one or some of the state(s) between the first and last one in the pattern is/are replaced by wildcard(s) that can be matched by a subset of values in the state set. In this paper, we propose a new model that generalizes the conventional Markov approach making it capable of dealing with the sparse pattern and handling the length of the sparse patterns adaptively, i.e. allowing variable length pattern with variable wildcards. The model, named Dynamic order Markov model (DOMM), allows deriving a new similarity measure between a sequence and a set of sequences/cluster. DOMM builds a sparse pattern from sub-frequent patterns that contain significant statistical information veiled by the noise. To implement DOMM, we propose a sparse pattern detector (SPD) based on the probability suffix tree (PST) capable of discovering both sparse and consecutive patterns, and then we develop a divisive clustering algorithm, named DMSC, for Dynamic order Markov model for categorical sequence clustering. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".