Charting the Information and Misinformation Landscape to Characterize Misinfodemics on Social Media: COVID-19 Infodemiology Study at a Planetary Scale
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus, also known as SARS-CoV-2, has come to define much of our lives since the beginning of 2020. During this time, countries around the world imposed lockdowns and social distancing measures. The physical movements of people ground to a halt, while their online interactions increased as they turned to engaging with each other virtually. As the means of communication shifted online, information consumption also shifted online. Governing authorities and health agencies have intentionally shifted their focus to use social media and online platforms to spread factual and timely information. However, this has also opened the gate for misinformation, contributing to and accelerating the phenomenon of misinfodemics. OBJECTIVE: We carried out an analysis of Twitter discourse on over 1 billion tweets related to COVID-19 over a year to identify and investigate prevalent misinformation narratives and trends. We also aimed to describe the Twitter audience that is more susceptible to health-related misinformation and the network mechanisms driving misinfodemics. METHODS: We leveraged a data set that we collected and made public, which contained over 1 billion tweets related to COVID-19 between January 2020 and April 2021. We created a subset of this larger data set by isolating tweets that included URLs with domains that had been identified by Media Bias/Fact Check as being prone to questionable and misinformation content. By leveraging clustering and topic modeling techniques, we identified major narratives, including health misinformation and conspiracies, which were present within this subset of tweets. RESULTS: Our focus was on a subset of 12,689,165 tweets that we determined were representative of COVID-19 misinformation narratives in our full data set. When analyzing tweets that shared content from domains known to be questionable or that promoted misinformation, we found that a few key misinformation narratives emerged about hydroxychloroquine and alternative medicines, US officials and governing agencies, and COVID-19 prevention measures. We further analyzed the misinformation retweet network and found that users who shared both questionable and conspiracy-related content were clustered more closely in the network than others, supporting the hypothesis that echo chambers can contribute to the spread of health misinfodemics. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a summary and analysis of the major misinformation discourse surrounding COVID-19 and those who promoted and engaged with it. While misinformation is not limited to social media platforms, we hope that our insights, particularly pertaining to health-related emergencies, will help pave the way for computational infodemiology to inform health surveillance and interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".