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Record W4212870686 · doi:10.1111/jtsa.12642

Inference in functional factor models with applications to yield curves

2022· article· en· W4212870686 on OpenAlexaff
Lajos Horváth, Piotr Kokoszka, Jeremy VanderDoes, Shixuan Wang

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Time Series Analysis · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
FundersNational Science Foundation of Sri LankaUniversity of ReadingNational Science Foundation
KeywordsMathematicsEstimatorAsymptotic distributionHeteroscedasticityConsistency (knowledge bases)Goodness of fitInferenceGeneralityApplied mathematicsStatisticsStatistical inferenceEconometricsLeast-squares function approximationSet (abstract data type)Computer scienceArtificial intelligence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This article develops a set of inferential methods for functional factor models that have been extensively used in modelling yield curves. Our setting accommodates both temporal dependence and heteroskedasticity. First, we introduce an estimation approach based on minimizing the least‐squares loss function and establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. Second, we propose a goodness‐of‐fit test that allows us to determine whether a specific model fits the data. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics, and this leads to a significance test. A simulation study establishes the good finite‐sample performance of our inferential methods. An application to US and UK yield curves demonstrates the generality of our framework, which can accommodate both sparsely and densely observed yield curves.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.020
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.107
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.107

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0200.107
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.003
Bibliometrics0.0030.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.003
Scholarly communication0.0020.004
Open science0.0030.003
Research integrity0.0020.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.101
GPT teacher head0.350
Teacher spread0.250 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations5
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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