Developing a Cancer Digital Twin: Supervised Metastases Detection From Consecutive Structured Radiology Reports
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The development of digital cancer twins relies on the capture of high-resolution representations of individual cancer patients throughout the course of their treatment. Our research aims to improve the detection of metastatic disease over time from structured radiology reports by exposing prediction models to historical information. We demonstrate that Natural language processing (NLP) can generate better weak labels for semi-supervised classification of computed tomography (CT) reports when it is exposed to consecutive reports through a patient's treatment history. Around 714,454 structured radiology reports from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center adhering to a standardized departmental structured template were used for model development with a subset of the reports included for validation. To develop the models, a subset of the reports was curated for ground-truth: 7,732 total reports in the lung metastases dataset from 867 individual patients; 2,777 reports in the liver metastases dataset from 315 patients; and 4,107 reports in the adrenal metastases dataset from 404 patients. We use NLP to extract and encode important features from the structured text reports, which are then used to develop, train, and validate models. Three models-a simple convolutional neural network (CNN), a CNN augmented with an attention layer, and a recurrent neural network (RNN)-were developed to classify the type of metastatic disease and validated against the ground truth labels. The models use features from consecutive structured text radiology reports of a patient to predict the presence of metastatic disease in the reports. A single-report model, previously developed to analyze one report instead of multiple past reports, is included and the results from all four models are compared based on accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The best model is used to label all 714,454 reports to generate metastases maps. Our results suggest that NLP models can extract cancer progression patterns from multiple consecutive reports and predict the presence of metastatic disease in multiple organs with higher performance when compared with a single-report-based prediction. It demonstrates a promising automated approach to label large numbers of radiology reports without involving human experts in a time- and cost-effective manner and enables tracking of cancer progression over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".