A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Use of downscaled global climate model projections is expanding rapidly as climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning become mainstream in many sectors. Many climate change impact analyses use climate model projections downscaled at very high spatial resolution (~1 km) but very low temporal resolution (20‐ to 30‐year normals). These applications have model selection priorities that are distinct from analyses at high temporal resolution. Here, we select a 13‐model ensemble and an 8‐model subset designed for robust change‐factor downscaling of monthly climate normals, and describe their attributes in North America. All models are selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archives. The 13‐model ensemble is representative of the distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity, grid resolution, and transient regional climate changes in the CMIP6 generation. The 8‐model subset is consistent with the IPCC's recent assessment of the very likely range of Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity. Our results emphasize several principles for selection and use of downscaled climate ensembles: (a) the ensemble must be observationally constrained to be meaningful; (b) analysis of multiple models is essential as the ensemble mean alone can be misleading; (c) small (<8‐member) ensembles should be region‐specific and used with caution; (d) higher grid resolution is not necessarily better; and (e) multiple simulations of each model/scenario combination are necessary to represent precipitation uncertainty. Although we have focused our documentation on North America, our model selection uses primarily global criteria and is applicable to downscaling climate normals in other continents. Downscaled projections for the selected models are available in ClimateNA ( http://climatena.ca/ ). An accompanying web application ( https://bcgov-env.shinyapps.io/cmip6-NA/ ) provides tools for further model selection and visualization of the ensemble.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it