An Empirical Investigation on Bubbles Contagion in Scandinavian Real Estate Markets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the Scandinavian countries namely Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over the period from 1980Q1 to 2018Q4 and searches for evidence of bubble migration among those countries. First, we apply the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) on quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios to test for exuberance and episodic bubbles. Subsequently, we examine bubble migration between these markets using the non-parametric model with time-varying coefficients (NPM-TVC) developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016). We find evidence of episodic bubbles in all the Scandinavian real estate markets for the period 1980 to 2018. Our results also indicate that housing bubbles are contagious between these markets during several periods, and the market connection is stronger for geographically neighboring countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".