Reconstructing Complex Cancer Evolutionary Histories from Multiple Bulk DNA Samples Using Pairtree
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cancers are composed of genetically distinct subpopulations of malignant cells. DNA-sequencing data can be used to determine the somatic point mutations specific to each population and build clone trees describing the evolutionary relationships between them. These clone trees can reveal critical points in disease development and inform treatment. Pairtree is a new method that constructs more accurate and detailed clone trees than previously possible using variant allele frequency data from one or more bulk cancer samples. It does so by first building a Pairs Tensor that captures the evolutionary relationships between pairs of subpopulations, and then it uses these relations to constrain clone trees and infer violations of the infinite sites assumption. Pairtree can accurately build clone trees using up to 100 samples per cancer that contain 30 or more subclonal populations. On 14 B-progenitor acute lymphoblastic leukemias, Pairtree replicates or improves upon expert-derived clone tree reconstructions. SIGNIFICANCE: Clone trees illustrate the evolutionary history of a cancer and can provide insights into how the disease changed through time (e.g., between diagnosis and relapse). Pairtree uses DNA-sequencing data from many samples of the same cancer to build more detailed and accurate clone trees than previously possible. See related commentary by Miller, p. 176. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 171.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".