A high-generalizability machine learning framework for predicting the progression of Alzheimer’s disease using limited data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Alzheimer's disease is a neurodegenerative disease that imposes a substantial financial burden on society. A number of machine learning studies have been conducted to predict the speed of its progression, which varies widely among different individuals, for recruiting fast progressors in future clinical trials. However, because the data in this field are very limited, two problems have yet to be solved: the first is that models built on limited data tend to induce overfitting and have low generalizability, and the second is that no cross-cohort evaluations have been done. Here, to suppress the overfitting caused by limited data, we propose a hybrid machine learning framework consisting of multiple convolutional neural networks that automatically extract image features from the point of view of brain segments, which are relevant to cognitive decline according to clinical findings, and a linear support vector classifier that uses extracted image features together with non-image information to make robust final predictions. The experimental results indicate that our model achieves superior performance (accuracy: 0.88, area under the curve [AUC]: 0.95) compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, our framework demonstrates high generalizability as a result of evaluations using a completely different cohort dataset (accuracy: 0.84, AUC: 0.91) collected from a different population than that used for training.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".