A high-generalizability machine learning framework for predicting the progression of Alzheimer’s disease using limited data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Alzheimer's disease is a neurodegenerative disease that imposes a substantial financial burden on society. A number of machine learning studies have been conducted to predict the speed of its progression, which varies widely among different individuals, for recruiting fast progressors in future clinical trials. However, because the data in this field are very limited, two problems have yet to be solved: the first is that models built on limited data tend to induce overfitting and have low generalizability, and the second is that no cross-cohort evaluations have been done. Here, to suppress the overfitting caused by limited data, we propose a hybrid machine learning framework consisting of multiple convolutional neural networks that automatically extract image features from the point of view of brain segments, which are relevant to cognitive decline according to clinical findings, and a linear support vector classifier that uses extracted image features together with non-image information to make robust final predictions. The experimental results indicate that our model achieves superior performance (accuracy: 0.88, area under the curve [AUC]: 0.95) compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, our framework demonstrates high generalizability as a result of evaluations using a completely different cohort dataset (accuracy: 0.84, AUC: 0.91) collected from a different population than that used for training.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it