COVID-19 Return to Sport: NFL Injury Prevalence Analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Sport injuries have been common among athletes across the globe for decades and have the potential to disrupt athletic careers, performance, and psyche. Many health professionals and organizations have undertaken injury mitigation strategies to prevent sport injuries through protective equipment, training protocols, and a host of other evidence-based practices. Many of these specialized training methods were disrupted due to protocols to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. This research examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to the prevalence of athletic injuries in the National Football League (NFL). Objective During the COVID-19 pandemic, NFL teams and athletes across all levels of sport were reported to have reduced training in preparation for their seasons due to protocols to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. This study compares the prevalence of injury during the 2018, 2019, and 2020 NFL seasons, with the aim to determine the potential causes of the differences in injury prevalence. Methods Official injury reports from each team were counted during the 17-week regular season of each year (2018, 2019, and 2020). The data were analyzed using an unpaired t test to compare the injury prevalence between each of the three seasons. Results The 2018 season produced a total of 1561 injuries and a mean of 48.8 injuries per team. The 2019 season produced a total of 1897 injuries and a mean of 59.3 injuries per team, while the 2020 season produced a total of 2484 injuries and a mean of 77.6 injuries per team. An unpaired t test was performed using the data to compare the mean number of injuries per team during each of the seasons. Comparison of the 2020 season against the 2019 season showed a statistically significant difference (P<.001); comparison of the 2020 season to the 2018 season found a statistically significant difference (P<.001); and comparison between the 2019 and the 2018 seasons found a statistically significant difference (P=.03). Conclusions Although the 2019 and 2018 seasons showed a statistically significant difference (P=.03), this difference is not as large when we compare the 2020 seasons versus the 2019 (P<.001) and 2018 (P<.001) seasons. The astronomical increase in injury prevalence during the 2020 season over the previous years raises the possibility that there was a reduced physiological adaptation to stress, due to the limited amount of training as a result of the closure of practice facilities in order to slow the spread of COVID-19.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it