Weakly Supervised Occupancy Prediction Using Training Data Collected via Interactive Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate and timely occupancy prediction has the potential to improve the efficiency of energy management systems in smart buildings. Occupancy prediction heavily depends on historical occupancy-related data collected from various sensor sources. Unfortunately, a major problem in that context is the difficulty to collect training data. This situation inspired us to rethink the occupancy prediction problem, proposing the use of an original principled approach based on occupancy estimation via interactive learning to collect the needed training data. Following that, the collected data, along with various features, were fed into several algorithms to predict future occupancy. This paper mainly proposes a weakly supervised occupancy prediction framework based on office sensor readings and occupancy estimations derived from an interactive learning approach. Two studies are the main emphasis of this paper. The first is the prediction of three occupancy states, referred to as discrete states: absence, presence of one occupant, and presence of more than one occupant. The purpose of the second study is to anticipate the future number of occupants, i.e., continuous states. Extensive simulations were run to demonstrate the merits of the proposed prediction framework's performance and to validate the interactive learning-based approach's ability to contribute to the achievement of effective occupancy prediction. The results reveal that LightGBM, a machine learning model, is a better fit for short-term predictions than known recursive neural networks when dealing with a limited dataset. For a 24 h window forecast, LightGBM improved accuracy from 38% to 50%, which is an excellent result for non-aggregated data (single office).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".