PACMAN: PAC-style bounds accounting for the Mismatch between Accuracy and Negative log-loss
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The ultimate performance of machine learning algorithms for classification tasks is usually measured in terms of the empirical error probability (or accuracy) using a testing dataset, although these algorithms are optimized through the minimization of a typically different—more convenient—loss function using a training set. For classification tasks, this loss function is often the negative log-loss that yields the well-known cross-entropy risk that is typically better behaved (in terms of numerical behavior) than the 0-1 loss. Conventional studies on the generalization error do not usually take into account the underlying mismatch between losses at training and testing phases. In this work, we introduce a theoretical analysis based on a pointwise probably approximately correct (PAC) approach over the generalization gap considering the mismatch of testing on the accuracy metric and training on the negative log-loss, referred to as PACMAN. Building on the fact that the resulting mismatch can be written as a likelihood ratio, concentration inequalities can be used to obtain insights into the generalization gap in terms of PAC bounds, which depend on some meaningful information-theoretic quantities. An analysis of the obtained bounds and a comparison with available results in the literature is also provided.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it