Solar Power Forecasting Using Deep Learning Techniques
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent rapid and sudden growth of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology presents a future challenge for the electricity sector agents responsible for the coordination and distribution of electricity given the direct dependence of this type of technology on climatic and meteorological conditions. Therefore, the development of models that allow reliable future prediction, in the short term, of solar PV generation will be of paramount importance, in order to maintain a balanced and comprehensive operation. This article discusses a method for predicting the generated power, in the short term, of photovoltaic power plants, by means of deep learning techniques. To fulfill the above, a deep learning technique based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm is evaluated with respect to its ability to forecast solar power data. An evaluation of the performance of the LSTM network has been conducted and compared it with the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) network using: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The prediction result shows that the LSTM network gives the best results for each category of days. Thus, it provides reliable information that enables more efficient operation of photovoltaic power plants in the future. The binomial formed by the concepts of deep learning and energy efficiency seems to have a promising future, especially regarding promoting energy sustainability, decarburization, and the digitization of the electricity sector.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".