Evaluating the Effectiveness of Current Atmospheric Refraction Models in Predicting Sunrise and Sunset Times
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The standard value for atmospheric refraction on the horizon of 34', used in all publicly available sunrise and sunset calculators, is found to be inadequate. The assumptions behind atmospheric models that predict this value fail to account for real meteorological conditions. The result is an uncertainty of one to five minutes in sunrise and sunset predictions at mid-latitudes (0° - 55° N/S). A sunrise/set calculator that interchanges the refraction component by varying the refraction model was developed. Two atmospheric refraction models of increasing complexity were tested along with the standard value. The predictions were compared with data sets of observed rise/set times taken from Mount Wilson Observatory in California, University of Alberta in Edmonton, Alberta, observations from various locations in Chile, and on-board the SS James Fergus in the Atlantic Ocean. Increasing the complexity of the model did not yield significantly better results. These observations make up the entirety of documented sunrise and sunset times. A thorough investigation of the problem requires a more substantial data set of observed rise/set times and corresponding meteorological data from around the world. A mobile application, Sunrise & Sunset Observer, was developed so that anyone can capture this astronomical and meteorological data using their smartphone as part of a citizen science project. Data analysis will lead to more complete models that will provide higher accuracy rise/set predictions to benefit astronomers, navigators, and outdoorsmen everywhere.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it