Using Minimum Bootstrap support for Splits to Construct Confidence Regions for Trees
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many of the estimated topologies in phylogenetic studies are presented with the bootstrap support for each of the splits in the topology indicated. If phylogenetic estimation is unbiased, high bootstrap support for a split suggests that there is a good deal of certainty that the split actually is present in the tree and low bootstrap support suggests that one or more of the taxa on one side of the estimated split might in reality be located with taxa on the other side. In the latter case the follow-up questions about how many and which of the taxa could reasonably be incorrectly placed as well as where they might alternatively be placed are not addressed through the presented bootstrap support. We present here an algorithm that finds the set of all trees with minimum bootstrap support for their splits greater than some given value. The output is a ranked list of trees, ranked according to the minimum bootstrap supports for splits in the trees. The number of such trees and their topologies provides useful supplementary information in bootstrap analyses about the reasons for low bootstrap support for splits. We also present ways of quantifying low bootstrap support by considering the set of all topologies with minimum bootstrap greater than some quantity as providing a confidence region of topologies. Using a double bootstrap we are able to choose a cutoff so that the set of topologies with minimum bootstrap support for a split greater than that cutoff gives an approximate 95% confidence region. As with bootstrap support one advantage of the methods is that they are generally applicable to the wide variety of phylogenetic estimation methods.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it