Declining populations of coastal birds in Great Britain: victims of sea-level rise and climate change?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Is sea-level rise and (or) climate change responsible for current declines in important coastal bird populations in Great Britain, and how might these processes affect bird populations in future? We review the current status of coastal bird populations in Britain and identify two important species, Common Redshank (Tringa totanus) and Twite (Carduelis flavirostris), whose populations are currently declining. We then review the evidence relating to the causes of these declines. There is evidence that habitat loss, driven by sea-level rise and climate change (e.g., an increase in wind and wave energy reaching the coast due to an increase in the frequency of storms), could have contributed to the decline in Twite. Common Redshank numbers are declining because of changes in grazing management, not sea-level rise. Populations that are currently stable or increasing, such as wintering waders and wildfowl, might in future experience declines in abundance because there is a link between climate, food supply, and bird abundance. There are insufficient reliable data at present to allow us to predict future changes with any confidence. Sea-level rise and climate change are currently important issues facing coastal zone management in Great Britain, and these issues may become even more pressing in future. But, in addition to these environmental processes, coastal bird populations are affected by a range of other anthropogenic factors. Conservationists, therefore, need to identify important bird populations that are (or could be in future) detrimentally affected by any of these activities rather than focusing exclusively on single issues such as sea-level rise. Allowing the sea to breach existing sea defences, thereby creating new saltmarsh, provides a way forward but is not without its practical and political difficulties.Key words: coastal birds, sea-level rise, climate change, population decline, habitat loss, saltmarsh.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".