Towards an Autonomic Auto-scaling Prediction System for Cloud Resource Provisioning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the accuracy of predictive auto-scaling systems in the Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) layer of cloud computing. The hypothesis in this research is that prediction accuracy of auto-scaling systems can be increased by choosing an appropriate time-series prediction algorithm based on the performance pattern over time. To prove this hypothesis, an experiment has been conducted to compare the accuracy of time-series prediction algorithms for different performance patterns. In the experiment, workload was considered as the performance metric, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Neural Networks (NN) were utilized as time-series prediction techniques. In addition, we used Amazon EC2 as the experimental infrastructure and TPC-W as the benchmark to generate different workload patterns. The results of the experiment show that prediction accuracy of SVM and NN depends on the incoming workload pattern of the system under study. Specifically, the results show that SVM has better prediction accuracy in the environments with periodic and growing workload patterns, while NN outperforms SVM in forecasting unpredicted workload pattern. Based on these experimental results, this paper proposes an architecture for a self-adaptive prediction suite using an autonomic system approach. This suite can choose the most suitable prediction technique based on the performance pattern, which leads to more accurate prediction results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".