Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decision Making
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Uncertainty is both inherent in nature and endemic to national security decision-making. Intelligence communities throughout the Western world, however, rely on vague language to communicate uncertainty—both the probability of critical events and the confidence that analysts have in their assessments—to decision-makers. In this article, we review the status-quo approach taken by the intelligence community and, drawing on abundant research findings, we describe fundamental limitations with the approach, including the inherent vagueness, context-dependence, and implicit meanings that attend the use of verbal uncertainty expressions. We then present an alternative approach based on the use of imprecise numeric estimates supplemented by clear written rationales, highlighting the affordances of this alternative. Finally, we describe institutional barriers to reform and address common objections raised by practitioners. While we focus our discussion on the domain of national security intelligence, the case for numeric probabilities is relevant to any organizational field where high-stakes decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.019 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.034 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.017 | 0.014 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".