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Record W4280513172 · doi:10.18280/ria.360208

An Adaptive Gradient Boosting Model for the Prediction of Rainfall Using ID3 as a Base Estimator

2022· article· en· W4280513172 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueRevue d intelligence artificielle · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHydrological Forecasting Using AI
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDecision treeGradient boostingBoosting (machine learning)Information gain ratioIncremental decision treeID3 algorithmData miningComputer scienceEstimatorDecision tree learningPruningRaw dataArtificial intelligenceDecision tree modelMachine learningTree (set theory)RegressionMathematicsStatisticsRandom forest

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

While analyzing the data, it is crucial to choose the model that best matches the circumstance. Many experts in the field of classification and regression have proposed ensemble strategies for tabular data, as well as various approaches to classification and regression problems. In this paper, Gini Index is applied on raw geographical dataset to convert continuous data into discrete dataset. Decision tree algorithm is implemented on resultant discrete dataset, Information Gain is calculated for every attribute and the attribute with highest information gain is the splitting node, applied recursively. Decision tree algorithm implemented predicts the rainfall in Kashmir province with the accuracy of 81.5%. MDL pruning is applied on the resultant decision tree in order to reduce the size & complexity of the Decision tree. Pruning removes segments of the tree that contribute little towards classification; the accuracy is marginally reduced to 81.1%. Furthermore, after the implementation of Decision tree a boosting algorithm: gradient boosting has been implemented on the same set of data using decision tree as a base estimator. It was observed that the overall accuracy of the decision tree got increased to 87.5% after the implementation of gradient boosting model. Thus, the obtained results predict that gradient boosted-DT outperforms all other approaches with the highest accuracy measure and high susceptibility rate in rainfall prediction.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.471
Threshold uncertainty score0.654

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.105
GPT teacher head0.293
Teacher spread0.188 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it