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Record W4283823152 · doi:10.18280/mmep.090311

Modelling the Effect of Temperature on Power Generation at a Nigerian Agricultural Institute

2022· article· en· W4283823152 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueMathematical Modelling and Engineering Problems · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicEnergy Load and Power Forecasting
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEnvironmental scienceClimate changeLinear regressionWind speedMeteorologyEnergy consumptionWind powerMultivariate statisticsElectricityBayesian multivariate linear regressionHeating degree dayRegression analysisArtificial neural networkStatisticsComputer scienceMathematicsGeographyEngineeringMachine learningEcology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The energy sector is considered one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change. Climate change has a considerable impact on environmental weather parameters such as temperature, humidity, radiation from the sun, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind direction, etc. These meteorological considerations have an impact on the electricity consumption rate. As a result, knowing the influence of weather conditions on energy demand and consumption is critical for adapting, planning, and forecasting the impact of changing climate on an organization's energy needs. Several factors influencing electricity consumption can be classified as economic, seasonal, and meteorological factors. This research aims to look at the influence of climate change on energy supply in a typical agricultural institute and utilize Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) models to predict the impact of changes in temperature on electricity generated. The approach used in this study includes: Creating a database of weather variables and energy demand or consumption parameters; analyzing and correlating electrical energy demand to weather variables, developing models - Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to forecast the impact of change in the weather variables on the electrical energy. “Average temperature” was seen to have the most influence on electrical energy with the highest correlation (r = 0.92 for 2015 and r = 0.86 for 2011 - 2018), while “Wind speed” had the least influence with the lowest correlation (r = 0.033 for 2011 - 2018). The ANN model was the best of the two models considered in this study. The mean squared error was reduced by 39% and 42% on test data and train data, respectively, indicating that ANNs outperformed the MLR model. Other measures, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), showed that the ANN performed substantially better than the MLR. The results suggest that ANN models perform relatively well since the algorithm learns independently and develops a reasonably accurate representation of the dataset.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.105
Threshold uncertainty score0.576

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.013
GPT teacher head0.177
Teacher spread0.164 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it