Transformer-Based Model for Electrical Load Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Amongst energy-related CO2 emissions, electricity is the largest single contributor, and with the proliferation of electric vehicles and other developments, energy use is expected to increase. Load forecasting is essential for combating these issues as it balances demand and production and contributes to energy management. Current state-of-the-art solutions such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and sequence-to-sequence algorithms (Seq2Seq) are highly accurate, but most studies examine them on a single data stream. On the other hand, in natural language processing (NLP), transformer architecture has become the dominant technique, outperforming RNN and Seq2Seq algorithms while also allowing parallelization. Consequently, this paper proposes a transformer-based architecture for load forecasting by modifying the NLP transformer workflow, adding N-space transformation, and designing a novel technique for handling contextual features. Moreover, in contrast to most load forecasting studies, we evaluate the proposed solution on different data streams under various forecasting horizons and input window lengths in order to ensure result reproducibility. Results show that the proposed approach successfully handles time series with contextual data and outperforms the state-of-the-art Seq2Seq models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".