An Ensemble Model to Minimize Fluctuation Influences on Short-Term Medical Workload Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Time series forecasting is an important field of machine learning since many real-world events are related to time. Real-time data are commonly prone to errors due to irregular fluctuations, seasonal biases, and missing values in the data. The erroneous data causes inaccurate forecasting which leads to business loss. Moreover, the concept drift problem is a known problem in time series forecasting that also results in poor forecasting accuracy. This work presents an Adaptive Batched-Ranked Ensemble (ABRE) model that reduces the effect of fluctuation using the time-variant windowing technique. A data aggregation technique is developed and integrated with the offline training phase of the proposed model to tackle the concept drift problem. A meta-model is developed from the offline phase. This meta-model is exposed in the online forecasting phase which ensures faster execution for incoming data. The model is implemented for the medical workload prediction after testing and comparing with a few other heterogeneous ensemble models. The comparison results show in terms of the root mean squared error, the proposed model performs at least 65.7% better than the heterogeneous stacked ensemble models applied to the experimental dataset. Moreover, the ABRE model reduces the prediction error by approximately 73.6%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".