The silent trial - the bridge between bench-to-bedside clinical AI applications
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As more artificial intelligence (AI) applications are integrated into healthcare, there is an urgent need for standardization and quality-control measures to ensure a safe and successful transition of these novel tools into clinical practice. We describe the role of the silent trial, which evaluates an AI model on prospective patients in real-time, while the end-users (i.e., clinicians) are blinded to predictions such that they do not influence clinical decision-making. We present our experience in evaluating a previously developed AI model to predict obstructive hydronephrosis in infants using the silent trial. Although the initial model performed poorly on the silent trial dataset (AUC 0.90 to 0.50), the model was refined by exploring issues related to dataset drift, bias, feasibility, and stakeholder attitudes. Specifically, we found a shift in distribution of age, laterality of obstructed kidneys, and change in imaging format. After correction of these issues, model performance improved and remained robust across two independent silent trial datasets (AUC 0.85-0.91). Furthermore, a gap in patient knowledge on how the AI model would be used to augment their care was identified. These concerns helped inform the patient-centered design for the user-interface of the final AI model. Overall, the silent trial serves as an essential bridge between initial model development and clinical trials assessment to evaluate the safety, reliability, and feasibility of the AI model in a minimal risk environment. Future clinical AI applications should make efforts to incorporate this important step prior to embarking on a full-scale clinical trial.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.141 | 0.281 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".